NYC Migration Report: The Affordability Exodus

Key Takeaways

• Middle-income earners, not the wealthy, lead NYC’s exodus. Residents earning $51k-$200k account for the largest outflows
• The “wealthy flight” narrative doesn’t match reality. Fewer high-income residents left after Mamdani’s primary win than before
• Florida dominates as the #1 destination for people leaving NYC, attracting both wealthy and lower-income New Yorkers in disproportionate numbers
• Lower-income (<$200k) inbound migration is accelerating. 88% of new arrivals earn under $200k, reshaping the city’s economic profile
• Business departures tell a different story. While residents show mixed patterns, the city lost 8,400 financial jobs and 1,200+ retail stores.

Table of Contents:

• Our Proprietary Data Source
• The Migration Reality: Who’s Actually Leaving NYC?
• Following the Trail: Where New Yorkers Are Relocating
• The Flip Side: Who’s Moving Into NYC?
• The Business Exodus Tells a Different Story
• The Bottom Line
• Methodology

Our Proprietary Data Source

This analysis is based on PGM’s database of 24,000,000 moves tracked between June 2024 and October 2025. Unlike studies that rely on outdated census releases or modeled estimates, this dataset reflects real moves, making it one of the most current views of U.S. migration patterns available.

The Migration Reality: Who’s Actually Leaving NYC?

In a city where rhetoric often outpaces reality, hard data matters. So when Zohran Mamdani announced his candidacy for New York City mayor with proposals to tax high-income earners and provide services like fare-free buses, critics immediately predicted an exodus of wealthy residents. The data tells a more nuanced story.

Much of Mamdani’s platform revolves around taxing high-income earners to fund expanded social services. After all, bus drivers still need to earn a living even when fares are eliminated, and other essential factors like fuel, maintenance, and other costs associated with transportation have to be covered by someone. The question is: are wealthy New Yorkers voting with their feet in response to these proposals?

This report examines how New York City’s adult population has shifted since May 2024, using a practical definition of income brackets for one of America’s most expensive cities. For reference, we’ve defined “low income” as anyone making under $200k, a threshold that may seem high nationally but reflects the reality of New York’s cost of living, which sits well above the national average.

Timeline Context:

• October 23, 2024: Mamdani announces mayoral candidacy.
• June 24, 2025: Mamdani wins Democratic mayoral primary.

The Middle Class Exodus: NYC’s Largest Outflow Group

The data reveals a consistent pattern: people earning $51,000 to $100,000 and $101,000 to $200,000 account for the largest proportion of total outflows from New York City. These aren’t the ultra-wealthy that Mamdani’s tax proposals target. Instead, they’re the middle and upper-middle class.

The numbers:

• People making $51k to $100k and $101k to $200k consistently account for the largest proportion of total outflows from New York City.
• The $51k to $100k bracket leads with 66,158 total outflows, followed closely by the $101k to $200k bracket with 62,209 outflows.
• In contrast, lower-income earners making less than $12k contribute the least to the overall outflow.

This middle-class migration suggests that affordability pressures extend far beyond just the wealthy. These are teachers, nurses, mid-level professionals, and small business owners. In other words, the very backbone of any city’s economy.

Debunking the “Wealthy Flight” Narrative

Despite dire predictions about high earners fleeing progressive tax policies, New York City residents aren’t leaving at higher-than-normal rates. In fact, the data reveals a counterintuitive trend:

More high-income residents (earning $200k+) left in June 2024 (8.37% of all moves) than in June 2025 (7.44% of all moves), the month Mamdani won the Democratic primary.

If Mamdani’s policies were triggering wealthy flight, we’d expect to see the opposite pattern. Instead, the data suggests other factors predating his candidacy drive high-income migration decisions.

The Reality of Who’s Leaving NYC

From May 2024 to October 2025, New York City experienced a stark demographic shift:

• 15,552 high-income earners making over $201k left the city.
• 164,249 lower-income earners making less than $200k left the city..

That’s more than 10 times as many lower-income residents leaving compared to their wealthier counterparts. This disparity raises important questions about who can actually afford to stay in New York City, regardless of political leadership.

The data also shows that outflow peaks align with national moving trends, concentrated in the summer months (June-August) of both 2024 and 2025. The peak exodus months were August 2024 (17,572 outflows) and August 2025 (15,293 outflows), which align with seasonal patterns that have more to do with school schedules and moving logistics than mayoral politics.

Following the Trail: Where New Yorkers Are Relocating

When New Yorkers decide to leave, where do they go? The answer reveals distinct patterns by income level.

The Sunshine State Wins: Florida’s Dominant Pull

Florida claims the #1 destination spot, welcoming 16.68% of all New York City residents who left since May 2024. The appeal is obvious: no state income tax, lower cost of living, warm weather, and increasingly, a robust job market in cities like Miami.

But Florida’s magnetic pull extends across all income brackets in surprising ways.

Income-Based Migration Patterns Reveal Surprising Trends

The data shows that Florida and Connecticut attract the highest volume of wealthy NYC residents, a predictable pattern given their tax advantages and proximity.

What’s less predictable: Florida also draws a disproportionately high share of lower-income movers, with 17.08% of all lower-income departures from New York City heading to the Sunshine State. 

This suggests that Florida’s appeal transcends tax policy alone. Lower housing costs, job opportunities, and lifestyle factors matter across the economic spectrum. And to be fair, the cost of living in Florida is only 2% above the national average, making middle class incomes go way further than they might in New York, where the cost of living is 70% more than the national average.

Metro Magnets: The Cities That Win NYC Transplants

Zooming in on specific metropolitan areas reveals even more nuanced migration patterns:

Top 3 destination metros:

1. Philadelphia, PA – Attracts slightly more lower-income movers (7.01%) than high-income (6.76%), positioning itself as an affordable alternative with big-city amenities.
2. Miami, FL – Shows the opposite pattern, with a majority of high-income movers (7.16%), cementing its reputation as a destination for wealthy relocators.
3. Bridgeport, CT – Leads all metros in attracting wealthy residents, capturing 14.15% of high-income outflow. This Connecticut corridor has long served as a bedroom community for NYC professionals, and the remote work revolution has only strengthened that connection.

The Flip Side: Who’s Moving Into NYC?

While much attention focuses on who’s leaving, the inbound migration story is equally revealing.

Lower-Income Inbound Migration Dominates

Since May 2024, NYC has attracted significantly more lower-income earners (under $200k) than high-income residents. The numbers are striking:

• 88% of all people moving into NYC earn less than $200k.
• Only 12% of new arrivals are high-income earners.

This trend holds remarkably steady even after Mamdani’s primary win in June 2025, when the ratio was 87.55% lower-income versus 12.45% high-income.

The Business Exodus Tells a Different Story

The residential migration data presents a mixed picture, with fewer wealthy residents leaving than critics predicted. But zoom out to the business landscape, and storm clouds gather.

While individual New Yorkers show complex migration patterns, the city’s business environment tells a more concerning story, according to outside sources:

• The financial services sector lost 8,400 jobs between January and August 2024.
• Over 1,200 chain retail stores have closed in NYC since late 2019, representing a significant contraction in the city’s retail landscape by November 2024.

While exact figures for total business departures aren’t available, these statistics point to a net loss in the business ecosystem, particularly in two critical sectors: retail and finance. These are the industries that provide jobs, generate tax revenue, and create the economic foundation that funds city services.

This creates a potential paradox: if lower-income residents are moving in while high-paying jobs are moving out, New York City may face an increasingly challenging fiscal equation. More residents who need services, fewer businesses generating the tax revenue to fund those services, and a shrinking middle class to bridge the gap.

The Bottom Line

The data doesn’t support the simple narrative that Mamdani’s policies are driving wealthy residents out of New York City, at least not yet. High-income departures actually decreased after his primary victory, and overall migration patterns show more continuity than disruption.

But the real story is more complex and potentially more concerning:

1. The middle class is leaving in the largest numbers, suggesting affordability challenges that predate and transcend any single candidate’s policies.
2. Lower-income inbound migration is accelerating while high-income arrivals remain scarce, potentially shifting the city’s economic balance.
3. Businesses are departing, particularly in finance and retail, even as residents show mixed patterns.
4. Seasonal and national trends matter more than political rhetoric for most migration decisions.

The question facing New York City isn’t whether Zohran Mamdani’s policies will trigger an exodus; the data suggests that’s unlikely. The real question is whether any mayor, regardless of ideology, can address the underlying affordability crisis that’s pushing out the middle class, retain the businesses that provide high-paying jobs, and create economic opportunities for the lower-income residents who continue to see New York City as a land of possibility.

That’s a challenge that will require more than campaign promises. It will require data-driven policy, difficult tradeoffs, and a clear-eyed assessment of what it actually takes to run the most expensive city in America.

Methodology

To examine New York City’s migration patterns, we analyzed PGM’s proprietary database of 24,000,000 national moves recorded between May 2024 and October 2025. Each move in this dataset represents an actual relocation, providing a uniquely current perspective on the mobility trends of adults.

Our analysis focused on:

• Origins and destinations of adult moves,
• Intrastate versus interstate flows, and
• Demographic characteristics of people who are moving.

Unlike many studies that rely on outdated U.S. Census Bureau releases or modeled estimates from relocation calculators, this dataset reflects real moves as they occurred. As such, it represents one of the most up-to-date and reliable sources of migration data available in the United States in 2025.